Tesla begins manufacturing its own batteries. Where do domestic new energy vehicle companies go from here?

News shows that Tesla is building a pilot battery production line in Fremont and designing its own equipment to produce batteries. This is also the first time Tesla has produced its own batteries.

On January 7, 2020, the first batch of domestic Model 3 was delivered in large quantities. The price dropped to less than 300,000 yuan, and the annual output is expected to reach 150,000 vehicles. "Silicon Valley gene" meets "China speed", Tesla's market value has exceeded 90 billion US dollars, which has exceeded the combined market value of General Motors and Ford, the two traditional automobile giants in the United States.

The Chinese media has also generally begun to develop a kind of "Tesla anxiety". There are endless voices about the "wolf is coming", and Tesla's entry into China is regarded as overwhelming the Chinese mainland. The last straw for new car-making forces is also the "barbarian" on the road to transformation of traditional car companies.

So, what impact will Tesla’s plan to make its own batteries have on its fans in China?

　Difficulties of last resort

In fact, Tesla acquired the battery company Maxwell as early as May last year. Showing the intention of making its own batteries. Later at the annual shareholder meeting, Musk hinted that Tesla would produce its own batteries. In October 2019, Tesla acquired Hibar, a Canadian battery manufacturing equipment and engineering technology company.

Before analysis, we must understand its "difficulties" and why it makes its own batteries.

In the history of Tesla’s development, it has always been driven by electrification, differentiated competition with intelligence, and a high degree of vertical integration, gradually expanding its user base while maintaining environmental protection. , technology, brand image.

But in fact, Tesla’s number of patents in the field of new energy vehicles is far less than that of traditional car companies. As of 2018, it only has 408 patents, which is less than 3% of Toyota (more than 14,000 patents). %.

In order to avoid head-on confrontation, Tesla mobilized limited resources to focus on hard work and formed a partnership with traditional car companies in the three electric fields (battery, motor, and electronic control) that are the core of new energy vehicles. Differentiated competition, battery system-related patents account for more than 60%, of which batteries are the main ones.

Over the years, Tesla has possessed the industry’s most advanced three-electric technology, which is where its unparalleled moat lies.

However, over the years, Tesla has been forced to outsource battery manufacturing to Panasonic due to cost, industrial chain, resources, technology and other reasons. Tesla's Gigafactory makes batteries for Model 3.

Even so, both parties cannot continue to be "loving" forever.

On the one hand, Panasonic’s battery production cannot meet Tesla’s surging demand. Musk has been furious on Twitter many times, extremely dissatisfied with Panasonic’s holding back, and threatened to kill himself Make batteries.

On the other hand, Tesla’s demand for batteries is increasing, which will inevitably reduce the marginal cost of batteries. Opening a battery production line by yourself can save a lot of money, and there is no need to Let Panasonic, the OEM, make the difference.

On the other hand, looking at large car companies, they will definitely enter the entire industry chain after they grow up. Automotive services and energy services are Tesla’s new growth points. Tesla has already It has established a wide range of directly operated stores and charging networks, continuously pushes new software and functions to users through OTA, and continues to build a closed loop of online + offline, automobile + energy services. After new energy vehicles survive the initial rush stage, Musk, the Silicon Valley Iron Man, will not completely leave his lifeline to others.

For these reasons, Tesla not only developed LG Chem to become a battery OEM, but also recently signed a supply agreement with CATL, but this is not self-sufficient. Based on temporary considerations, once the production capacity problem is solved and the growth rate slows down, it is only a matter of time before Tesla will fully produce its own batteries.

　What impact will it have on domestic new energy vehicle companies?

For a long time, China has regarded Tesla’s entry into China as the mortal enemy of new car-making forces, and the delivery of the Shanghai Gigafactory has been regarded as the end of new car-making forces.

However, this may be everyone’s misunderstanding.

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China’s new energy vehicle sales in 2019 were 1.206 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, of which 1.02 million pure electric vehicles were produced, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. None of the new car-making forces ranked in the top ten. NIO, WM Motor and XPeng ranked 13th, 14th and 15th respectively. Compared with BYD’s217,000, which is only a fraction of the three leaders of the new car-making forces.

We all know that after the wave of Internet car manufacturing in 2015, there are currently only NIO, WM Motor, Yundu, Xpeng, Xintek, Dianka, and Hezhong Xin The seven energy companies have achieved small-scale mass production and delivery, followed closely by AIWAYS and Chehejia, both of which are in the stage of debuting mass-produced models, while other laggards have begun to fall into trouble.

Then why do everyone habitually compare these new car-making forces with Tesla?

Because they look like Tesla.

At the beginning, the three companies all wanted to be "China's Tesla", so they transformed from the Internet to cars. In terms of R&D and design, it is imitated very carefully and has a full sense of technology.

For example, one of Weilai’s major labels is that it takes a middle-of-the-road approach and is willing to spend money on its brand. It is nicknamed a “rich person’s toy”; Xpeng Motors takes a cost-effective approach. With Lei Jun's investment, it is determined to make an Internet car. The large central control screen is actually a tablet that plays with a car. It is nicknamed the "Xiaomi version of the car"; WM Motor is a low-end SUV with new energy sources. , the characteristics are not visible yet, but it imitates Tesla in all aspects.

Compared with these three new car-making forces, traditional car companies have basically only achieved electrification when making new energy vehicles, and have changed the energy supply method. They are jokingly said to "replace the engine". If you change the gearbox into a battery and a motor, you can change the blue card into a green card."

A common feature of traditional car companies after their transformation is that they have little sense of technology, and the technical accumulation of the three-electric system is even very low. Even BYD has joined the CATL battery business because of its This is completely different from the "new" of the new car-making forces.

Tesla was established in 2003, and Musk took over it in 2004. In August 2006, he proposed the "Master Plan", a roadmap that runs through Tesla's development. Three-step strategy:

　1. Build an expensive, niche sports car (Roadster);

　2. Use the money earned to build a cheaper, medium-selling car (Model S/X);

　3. Use the money earned to build a more economical model (Model 3);

　4. While doing the above Zero-emission power generation options are also available.

If compared according to this set of models, BYD, BAIC New Energy, Geely and other car companies are mostly in the third step. New car-making forces have limited funds and industrial chains. , the basic technology is insufficient, and several leaders are in the first or second step.

As we all know, the rise of new energy vehicles in China has only happened in the past few years, and there are only a few companies that can produce them. Among them, Weilai and Xiaopeng were founded in 2014, and Weimar Established in 2015.

Compared with Tesla, there is a 10-year gap. In other words, the new domestic car-making forces now are actually similar to Tesla 10 years ago.

However, the automobile is not a winner-take-all industry, and each price range has different brands and audiences. The United States experienced the same new car manufacturing movement as China more than ten years ago, and dozens of new forces started their own businesses. There are three major reasons for Tesla’s success:

1. Find the electric car industry New market, this market has no competition, so it can survive. At the same time, some other car manufacturing companies are developing gasoline vehicles and hybrid vehicles, which are already being developed by mature companies.

2. The market does not lack mature companies, but it lacks innovation. Tesla does very well, such as direct sales.

3. Potential consumers in the market are highly receptive to new brands and have a high tolerance for defects in new products.

On the other hand, does Tesla use its battery business as a means to attack its opponents?

In June 2014, Tesla President Elon Musk announced that all Tesla patents would be open to competitors for free. Recently, another patent has been disclosed that can improve the service life of lithium batteries. Once put into use, the service life of the battery may be increased to 1.6 million kilometers.

　Feelings? Business strategy? Make progress together?
 

We know that before Tesla, few people believed in electric vehicles. Even if it was launched, neither public consumption concepts nor infrastructure could keep up.

The situation in China’s new energy vehicle market is not much better. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's automobile sales in 2019 were 25.769 million vehicles, of which new energy vehicles accounted for only 4.6%, and only a fraction of fuel vehicles. This was despite a large number of subsidies and policy support.

In a new field, popularization and development are equally important. In a desert, it is difficult for a single tree to survive, and large-scale tree planting is the scientific way to develop.

Give two examples: Is the paddlefish rare and tall enough? But it became extinct. Is the Chinese pangolin rare? Also extinct.

In other words, all new energy vehicles have only one competitor, and that is traditional fuel vehicles. The only way is to popularize new energy vehicles, promote infrastructure construction, and jointly make the pie bigger. .

Big fish cannot grow in small ponds, and the "chicken heads" in the niche market are not as good as the "phoenix tails" in the mass market. In the midst of industrial changes and explosions, companies are making a lot of money. It’s about trending money, rather than trying to extract money bit by bit from competitors.

This money can be earned by Weilai, Weimar, Xiaopeng... any new energy vehicle company that is interested in doing good research and development.

Brothers climb mountains and work hard individually. The monthly salary of others has increased to 100,000 yuan. It has no direct relationship with the increase or decrease of my monthly salary. But indirectly, it may be due to the general increase in salary levels that my salary has increased. The price has also increased from 3,000 yuan to 3,500 yuan...

In the same way, whether Tesla’s batteries are made by Panasonic or made by themselves, they are all in the industry. Chain control and cost considerations alone do not affect peers from continuing to order from CATL. Their biggest threats are the declining auto market, their own weak cash flow, and high-cost industrial chain.

　Who does Tesla’s self-produced batteries really affect?

Here, we cannot regard Tesla’s self-produced batteries as an independent matter, but as a symbol of Tesla’s improvement of ecological closed loop.

In the short term, Tesla’s own batteries will not be sold in China yet. If orders from China increase significantly in the future, it may be put into production in China.

Tesla’s entry into China has limited impact on Chinese new energy vehicle companies, because their biggest rival has never been Tesla, but fuel vehicles and gradually declining subsidies. .

Tesla’s entry into China has acted as a catfish, not only stimulating the domestic abnormal new energy vehicle market, but also bringing a huge number of parts orders, which will strengthen the Related industrial chains have formed a "Detroit"-like industry environment, and the entire Chinese automobile industry will benefit in the future.

So, once Tesla’s ecological closed loop is formed, who will it target?

BBA and other brands.

In 2016, after Tesla completed the “First Ten-Year Plan”, Musk proposed a new “Master Plan Part Deux”, including four tasks:

　1. Manufacturing solar roofs and integrating energy storage batteries;

　2. Expanding Tesla’s new energy vehicle product line to all major market segments;< br />

3. Actively develop driverless technology and achieve rapid iteration through large-scale fleets; 4. Launch car sharing and time-sharing leasing.

Tesla is already a global car company. With the entry of many traditional giants, Tesla’s advantages in the electrification field may be gradually reduced in the future. Its core competitiveness lies in intelligence, Self-driving technology, data and brands.

In response to this, car companies such as ABB have responded positively and have successively announced their focus on the research and development of new energy vehicles. Daimler, the parent company of Mercedes-Benz, even announced that it will no longer continue to develop fuel engines. .

In China, domestically produced new energy sources are all low-end products, and the middle-class acceptance is relatively low, but the BBA cannot get a number, so this is embarrassing - noble The middle class would rather go out and call Didi for the rest of their lives than own a domestic new energy vehicle, because this is too embarrassing for the middle class.

Now that Tesla has completed the ecological construction, the consumption gradient of new energy vehicles is complete, and it hasIt has the capital to compete with ABB and other luxury cars.

Don’t underestimate the consumption gradient. This is a necessary condition for forming a chain of contempt. In any consumer category, there must be a brand that is always pursued by people. Below it is for the middle class to stick on their faces. The middle class is the core group that forms the chain of contempt.

There is no doubt that self-produced batteries, as an important part of the "car + energy" ecological closed loop, are the vanguard of luxury car companies such as ABB, because currently ABB cannot measure it on its own. When producing batteries, they can only share the same type of battery with other low-end cars. There is no doubt that this is a sign of "self-indulgence", which is what Tesla wants to see.

　Conclusion

　In 2019, the sales of new energy vehicles declined, subsidies declined and the overall auto market declined, which brought great pressure to auto companies. This has brought huge pressure, and new car-making forces that are short of funds are also struggling.

Generally speaking, capital’s support for an industry does not exceed 7 years, and the average time is about 4 to 5 years, which is only a complete iteration cycle of automobile products. Since 2018, the financing situation of new car-making forces has been very poor, and capital is far less favored by them than it was five years ago.

For domestic new energy car companies, keeping an eye on whether Tesla will produce its own batteries is a matter of putting the first and the last. Their first priority is to get rid of their high dependence on capital and focus on Improve self-"hematopoietic" ability.

For Tesla, self-produced batteries are only a part of improving coordination and preparation. It still has production capacity, quality, workmanship, safety, cash flow, and high-level shocks. Frequency and other problems, there are still many challenges to face.